ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS

Authors

  • Marco Antonio Conejero Markestrat/FEA/USP
  • Marcos Fava Neves Markestrat/FEARP/USP
  • Mairun Junqueira Alves Pinto Markestrat/FEARP/USP

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i1.23

Abstract

Scenarios depicting targets concerning mandatory bio-fuel blending are critical to the strategic planning of food and bio-energy production chains and their design is the purpose of this paper. Each scenario tells a story about how various elements might interact under given conditions. The method herein utilized is primarily based on Schoemaker´s (1995) and Schwartz´s (1991) earlier proposals. A six step framework is followed: i) identify the focal issue; ii) summarize current mandatory blending targets; iii) identify the driving forces as of a macro-environmental analysis; iv) validate driving forces with specialists; v) rank such key forces by importance before uncertainties, building a correlation matrix; vi) design the scenarios. Finally, three alternative scenarios, relative to the adoption on behalf of countries, by the year 2020, of mandatory bio-fuel blending targets, are proposed which might guide these countries’ decision makers when planning production systems.

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Published

2010-06-09

How to Cite

Conejero, M. A., Neves, M. F., & Pinto, M. J. A. (2010). ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIOS FOR MANDATORY BIO-FUEL BLENDING TARGETS: AN APPLICATION OF INTUITIVE LOGICS. Future Studies Research Journal: Trends and Strategies, 2(1), 99–136. https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2010.v2i1.23