Prospectiva Orientada à Decisão para Transformar Ecossistemas Empreendedores até 2040
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24023/FutureJournal/2175-5825/2026.v18i1.986Palavras-chave:
Prospectiva estratégica, Ecossistemas empreendedores, Prospectiva orientada à decisão, Governança da inovação, Roadmapping estratégicoResumo
Objetivo: Este estudo tem como objetivo identificar e operacionalizar o cenário futuro mais estratégico para a transformação do ecossistema empreendedor equatoriano até 2040, enfrentando o descompasso entre elevada atividade empreendedora e baixa transformação estrutural por meio de uma abordagem de prospectiva orientada à decisão.
Originalidade/Valor: O artigo desloca o foco da construção de cenários para sua seleção e comprometimento estratégico. Propõe um arcabouço transparente e replicável que integra a definição participativa de critérios e a análise multicritério para legitimar escolhas estratégicas em contextos fragmentados e incertos.
Métodos: Foi adotado um desenho multimétodo. A Análise Causal em Camadas foi utilizada para construir quatro cenários futuros alternativos. Um painel de especialistas de alta competência foi selecionado por meio do coeficiente K. Os critérios estratégicos foram priorizados com o Ábaco de Régnier e os cenários hierarquizados pelo Processo Analítico Hierárquico. O cenário selecionado foi operacionalizado por meio de roadmapping estratégico com backcasting até 2040.
Resultados: Os resultados indicam que um ecossistema empreendedor baseado em ciência e tecnologia constitui o cenário mais estratégico, ao equilibrar relevância, viabilidade, desejabilidade e capacidade transformadora, com ênfase na coerência estrutural e institucional.
Conclusões: O estudo demonstra que a transformação do ecossistema exige mecanismos estruturados de escolha estratégica coletiva. O framework proposto amplia o valor decisório da prospectiva ao articular avaliação participativa, consistência metodológica e planejamento estratégico de longo prazo.
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